Set to Address Congress, Netanyahu Faces His Worst Nightmare: IrrelevancyBen Samuels Jul 24, 2024
WASHINGTON – On the day of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's record-setting fourth address to a joint session of Congress, the anticipated reception may be his worst nightmare: irrelevancy.
After months of behind-the-scenes and explicitly public scheming taken from his old playbook of turning Israel into a political football for his own expediency and self-interest, Netanyahu's address will be nothing short of a political afterthought.
The speech, as originally envisioned by Netanyahu and House Speaker Mike Johnson, was supposed to be a landmark moment in the U.S.-Israel relationship as well as a litmus test for how far Democrats would be willing to go in their criticisms of Netanyahu.
Both Netanyahu and Republican leadership envisioned a repeat of 2015, but on steroids – an embattled Israeli leader facing an existential threat, with a Democratic president facing a nailbiter election serving as his primary antagonist.
Now, several factors relating to the utterly unprecedented news cycle of the past four weeks and institutional factors in Washington, have made Netanyahu's visit a dud before he even delivers his speech to the joint session.
For one, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries were willing participants in inviting Netanyahu, unlike in 2015 when the speech was organized by a Republican-led Congress under the White House's nose.
Further, the unprecedented attention bestowed upon Israel over the past 10 months has given U.S. lawmakers a much greater fluency in how to publicly engage with Israel.
Israel's prosecution of the Gaza war and Netanyahu's failure to secure the release of the 120 remaining hostages has forced many U.S. lawmakers to deal with a truth that was somehow previously controversial: One can criticize Netanyahu and still support the State of Israel.
This realization was already taking hold in the months preceding October 7, thanks to the outrage surrounding Netanyahu's judicial overhaul and support for Israel's pro-democracy protest movement.
Since Netanyahu landed in Washington on Monday, the vast majority of attention from U.S. lawmakers and the American-Jewish community has been afforded to the hostage families. The families, in turn, have given U.S. lawmakers an unprecedented window into the utter contempt with which so many Israelis view Netanyahu.
The hostage families, especially those of the eight American hostages still in Hamas captivity, have shown acute awareness that Netanyahu's appearance is nothing short of a cynical demonstration of his own self-interest and that he is failing to secure what could be the last chance to release their loved ones.
Families of Israeli hostages gather ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address to Congress, at the National Mall in Washington, July 23.Credit: Craig Hudson/Reuters
This has been relayed to senior Biden administration officials, who know all too well about Netanyahu's various bad-faith efforts in recent months, as well as lawmakers from across the aisle – some of whom are Republicans hearing this unvarnished truth for the first time.
The Republican lawmakers, in turn, have vowed to relay their messages about Netanyahu putting political self-interest ahead of the hostages to the prime minister, who only met with the American hostage families this week for the first time since October 7.
Amid the backdrop of Netanyahu's highly politicized speech is Israel's ongoing effort to secure the release of 2,000-pound heavy-payload bombs – the remaining weapons held in the sole frozen shipment after the Biden administration loosened the hold on the smaller bombs.
Netanyahu will try to lobby the White House directly, while asking members of Congress to help exert public and private pressure on the administration, to loosen the hold.
The decision, however, effectively rests solely with U.S. President Joe Biden at this point, and he has not indicated that he will move forward. If anything, U.S. officials are only adding on further pressing Netanyahu to end the war – an aim they view as at odds with releasing the hold on the bombs.
Much to Netanyahu's chagrin, even before Biden's announcement that he would not run for re-election, his visit was set to be overshadowed by coverage of the aftermath of the presidential debate as well as the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the subsequent Republican National Convention.
After Biden's COVID-19 diagnosis and withdrawal from the race, any semblance of attention still focused on Netanyahu immediately shifted elsewhere.
Netanyahu, who had been attempting to foster a détente with his former ally Donald Trump for weeks before the visit, landed in an entirely new America from the one that had existed 24 hours prior. He was immediately forced to navigate the tension between praising Biden's legacy and playing to Trump's ego. The tables are now turned and Netanyahu is the one forced to navigate a political American tightrope, rather than the other way around.
The prime minister effectively spent the first 36 hours of his time in Washington waiting for someone to meet him, all while hostage families went around Washington acutely detailing his failure of leadership.
The only other people that are actively awaiting Netanyahu's appearance are the tens of thousands of demonstrators from across the political spectrum. Pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian protesters alike are taking to the streets fervently insisting that Netanyahu is not welcome in Washington.
And despite the shift in national priorities and attention, Netanyahu will still face an undeniably hostile and politicized reception inside Congress, as well. Anywhere from 60 to 100 Democratic lawmakers are expected to boycott the speech, including Jewish Democrats, party leadership and former favorites of the pro-Israel establishment. This estimated figure would exceed the number of Democrats who boycotted his 2015 speech.
Two particularly notable absences are that of Vice President Kamala Harris, who would normally preside over the session, and Trump's running mate J.D. Vance. Although both are missing the speech to hit the campaign trail, Republicans have already tried to capitalize on Harris' absence as evidence of her anti-Israel beliefs.
Even those attending have no love lost for Netanyahu. Rep. Jerry Nadler, the dean of the unofficial Jewish caucus, called him "the worst leader in Jewish history since the Maccabean king who invited the Romans into Jerusalem over 2100 years ago."
Others, meanwhile, will demonstrate their pro-Israel bona fides by elevating the hostages. At least seven leading Democrats will participate in an event alongside the families several hours before the address, while Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal will headline an event with Israeli and Palestinian peace activists concurrent with Netanyahu's speech.
This will occur as official events, all while tens of thousands of protesters make their voices heard throughout the streets of Washington. Netanyahu's remarks will quickly be placed on the backburner hours after his speech, with Biden set to give his prime-time address explaining his decision to stand down.
Netanyahu's 48 hours following the Congress speech, meanwhile, will not provide any safe harbor. He will meet with Biden at the White House, only to be joined by the eight families who will be at the ready to call Netanyahu on his bluffs, misdirection and outright lies.
He is also expected to meet Vice President Kamala Harris, who is widely expected to hold a more critical eye than Biden toward Israel's conduct given her harsher public and private statements over the past several months.
The Trump visit's best-case scenario is that he and the Republican nominee decide to put water under the bridge and he unabashedly aligns with the Republican Party at a time when Israel needs as much bipartisan support as possible.
If it bombs, he will have alienated both potential future presidents and found two more people who simply want him to leave America.
At the very least, he should have a nice extended weekend in Miami celebrating his son Yair's birthday on the Israeli taxpayer's shekel. No word on how the former hostages he flew to Israel as a political prop will get home.